Predicting Chances Of Bronny James Being Drafted From 1st To 58th Position (Full Breakdown)

The 2024 NBA Draft has become the hot news this summer following the lottery results that saw the Atlanta Hawks acquire the valued No. 1 overall pick. The player who might be receiving the most hype is none other than Bronny James, son of LeBron James. Bronny’s official draft measurements were released and even his hot shooting performance has made him an interesting prospect which is why some NBA teams are very intrigued by him.

Bronny is a natural guard at under 6’2” without shoes but has a consistent jumper and an impressive wingspan, which could make him an interesting pick in the 2024 Draft. We have collected the probability of each pick position resulting in Bronny getting drafted, from the No. 1 overall pick until the No. 58 overall pick, along with a prediction of where he ends up.

First-Round

Atlanta Hawks - No. 1 Overall Draft Pick: 0.0%

With a 0.0% chance of securing the top pick, the likelihood of Bronny James landing with the Hawks is nonexistent. Instead, the Hawks will likely focus on drafting French center Alexandre Sarr to bolster their frontcourt depth and give Trae Young a new lob partner.

Washington Wizards - No. 2 Overall Draft Pick: 0.0%

Holding the second pick with no real desire to take Bronny James, the Wizards are unlikely to see him in their lineup. French forward Zaccharie Risacher could be their target to add versatility to their roster.

Houston Rockets (via Brooklyn Nets) - No. 3 Overall Draft Pick: 0.0%

It's improbable that Bronny James will find himself with the Rockets, who hold the third pick with a 0.0% chance. They might explore trading the pick to bolster their roster or consider forward Matas Buzelis if they opt to draft differently this summer.

San Antonio Spurs - No. 4 Overall Draft Pick: 0.0%

Despite having the fourth pick, the Spurs are unlikely to draft Bronny. Instead, they might turn to Nikola Topic, a promising point guard, to strengthen their backcourt and give Victor Wembanyama a trusted playmaker.

Detroit Pistons - No. 5 Overall Draft Pick: 0.0%

With a 0.0% chance of drafting Bronny James at the fifth spot, because they need a bonafide game-changer, the Pistons are set to look elsewhere for talent. Donovan Clingan could be on their radar as they seek to solidify their frontcourt with a new starting center.

Charlotte Hornets - No. 6 Overall Draft Pick: 2.0%

The Hornets have a minute desire to take Bronny James but might want to look at one of the top 10 talents in the 2024 Draft instead. The Hornets finished with a terrible 21-61 record and trusting Bronny to fix that is unlikely.

Portland Trail Blazers - No. 7 Overall Draft Pick: 2.5%

The Trail Blazers need to rebuild quickly and might not want to wait for Bronny to develop as a player. LeBron James will almost certainly not follow his son to Portland, so there is no reason for the Trail Blazers to ignore one of the top 10 prospects in the draft.

San Antonio Spurs (via Toronto Raptors) - No. 8 Overall Draft Pick: 3.5%

The Spurs have a few picks in the bottom of the second round that they can use to take Bronny James if he is still available so they won’t risk missing out on any prospects. The Spurs need a guard to come in and space the floor, but Bronny isn’t the answer immediately.

Memphis Grizzlies - No. 9 Overall Draft Pick: 4.7%

The Grizzlies won’t take Bronny with their No. 9 overall pick. There are better prospects for Memphis to take including Ron Holland or Dalton Knecht if they fall to them within the top 10. The Grizzlies want to contend immediately so they will draft accordingly.

Utah Jazz - No. 10 Overall Draft Pick: 5.0%

The Utah Jazz need to surround Lauri Markkanen with the right prospects which is why Dalton Knecht will likely fall to them in the top 10. Any prospect they take in the top 10 will give them a great base to build on going forward.

Chicago Bulls - No. 11 Overall Draft Pick: 6.0%

The Bulls are holding onto their core of DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine for now but Bronny James does not fit into the core right now. Alex Caruso and Coby White are much better guards than Bronny will be in his first season, making LeBron’s son a negligible selection.

Oklahoma City Thunder (via Houston Rockets) - No. 12 Overall Draft Pick: 8.0%

The Thunder have a young team and want to keep adding young players, but they will look towards Tyler Smith or Jared McCain if either of them falls to the No. 12 pick. Bronny might not have enough to convince the Thunder to take him based on his college stats.

Sacramento Kings - No. 13 Overall Draft Pick: 9.1%

The Kings missed the playoffs this season and will want to add a prospect who can help them immediately rather than trying to build a prospect’s game. Ja'Kobe Walter fits perfectly in Sacramento because he could be the second-coming of a two-way starting shooting guard such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Portland Trail Blazers (via Golden State Warriors) - No. 14 Overall Draft Pick: 10.0%

The Trail Blazers already have Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons, and Shaedon Sharpe, so it will be hard for Bronny to find minutes in that rotation. The Trail Blazers will almost certainly look elsewhere for their prospects over James.

Miami Heat - No. 15 Overall Draft Pick: 11.8%

The Miami Heat could use Isaiah Collier as their future starting point guard as a playmaker and scorer. Collier has more upside than Bronny, which is why the chance LeBron’s eldest son is taken within the top 15 is slim to none.

Philadelphia 76ers - No. 16 Overall Draft Pick: 12.0%

With the No. 16 overall pick, the probability of selecting Bronny James stands at 12.0%, presenting a moderate chance of acquiring him for the team. However, this likelihood might fluctuate based on the team's draft strategy which is about winning now with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey.

Los Angeles Lakers - No. 17 Overall Draft Pick: 20.0%

The Lakers could make one of the most shocking decisions in the 2024 Draft by selecting Bronny James so early on. This could make sure LeBron James stays with the Lakers and signs a two or three-year deal before calling it quits in his career. The only reason the Lakers will consider taking Bronny No. 17 overall is to keep LeBron happy on the team.

Orlando Magic - No. 18 Overall Draft Pick: 20.0%

The Magic, positioned at No. 18, also hold a 20.0% chance of selecting Bronny James, providing them with an opportunity to potentially add a promising talent to their roster and bolster their future prospects. Still, the Magic might look elsewhere.

Toronto Raptors (via Indiana Pacers) - No. 19 Overall Draft Pick: 20.2%

Possessing the No. 19 pick, the Raptors have a slightly higher probability at 20.2% of drafting Bronny James, potentially adding him to their roster as part of their ongoing efforts to maintain competitiveness around Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett.

Cleveland Cavaliers - No. 20 Overall Draft Pick: 25.0%

At No. 20, the Cavaliers have a solid 25.0% chance of selecting Bronny James, presenting a considerable opportunity to secure him as a valuable asset for LeBron James’ hometown team. The Cavaliers could be losing Donovan Mitchell this summer so drafting Bronny could see LeBron join him in Cleveland, his hometown team.

New Orleans Pelicans (via Milwaukee Bucks) - No. 21 Overall Draft Pick: 25.1%

With the No. 21 pick, the Pelicans have a 25.1% chance of drafting Bronny James, offering them a significant opportunity to bolster their roster around Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. However, the chance is still around one in four so it remains unlikely Bronny ends up in New Orleans.

Phoenix Suns - No. 22 Overall Draft Pick: 25.3%

The Suns need shooting and depth, so why not take on Bronny James? Bronny is a knockdown shooter but might not be immediately ready to be under heavy expectations on a team that features superstars Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Devin Booker which is why the chance is slightly over 25%.

Milwaukee Bucks (via New Orleans Pelicans) - No. 23 Overall Draft Pick: 25.4%

At the No. 23 spot, the Bucks possess a 25.4% chance of drafting Bronny James, presenting them with a notable opportunity to add a promising prospect who can learn from superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.

New York Knicks (via Dallas Mavericks) - No. 24 Overall Draft Pick: 26.0%

The Knicks have a 26.0% chance of selecting Bronny James, providing them with a significant opportunity to secure a talented player who can run the floor and possibly get open looks playing alongside superstar point guard Jalen Brunson.

New York Knicks - No. 25 Overall Draft Pick: 30.1%

Positioned at No. 25, the Knicks see their chances increase to 30.1% to draft Bronny James, offering them an even more compelling opportunity to add a young player to put in the spotlight and make more storylines. New York needs stories and Bronny is a hot story right now.

Washington Wizards (via Los Angeles Clippers) - No. 26 Overall Draft Pick: 31.3%

At No. 26, the Wizards hold a 31.3% chance of selecting Bronny James, presenting them with an opportunity to add a dynamic player who will be given plenty of time to improve as a two-way player on a tanking team in the Eastern Conference.

Minnesota Timberwolves - No. 27 Overall Draft Pick: 32.4%

The Timberwolves could enhance their chances of success in the upcoming seasons if Bronny develops into an excellent rotation player. Anthony Edwards is the real deal and he could uplift the performances of Bronny as an example going forward.

Denver Nuggets - No. 28 Overall Draft Pick: 33.3%

The Denver Nuggets do not need to get their next pick exactly right but Bronny James could be a low-risk, high-reward gamble. The Nuggets have taken the Lakers out of the playoffs for two straight years and they can also steal Bronny for them next.

Utah Jazz (via Oklahoma City) - No. 29 Overall Draft Pick: 34.2%

At No. 29, the Jazz hold a 34.2% chance of drafting Bronny James based on who might be available, although Kevin McCullar Jr. is the type of player that fits within their plans in the near future and even the short-term.

Boston Celtics - No. 30 Overall Draft Pick: 34.7%

The Celtics could take a gamble on Bronny with the No. 30 overall pick because they don’t need young players, but those who can contribute right away. Unless a player such as DaRon Holmes becomes available, Bronny is a nice selection at No. 30.

Second-Round

Toronto Raptors - No. 31 Overall Draft Pick: 35.0%

The Toronto Raptors selecting Bronny could provide them with a notable opportunity to add a promising player to their roster and potentially contribute to their efforts to remain competitive in the East since their Pascal Siakam trade this season.

Utah Jazz (via Washington Wizards) - No. 32 Overall Draft Pick: 37.1%

At No. 32, the Jazz see their probability increase to 37.1% to draft Bronny James, offering them a chance to add a dynamic player to their roster and potentially strengthen their position in the league beyond being a tanking team in the West.

Milwaukee Bucks (via Portland Trail Blazers) - No. 33 Overall Draft Pick: 38.2%

At the 33rd pick, the Bucks have a favorable 38.2% chance of drafting Bronny James, potentially adding a new dimension to their already formidable roster that features three All-Star players and potentially some new role players coming in this summer.

Portland Trail Blazers (via Charlotte Hornets) - No. 34 Overall Draft Pick: 38.6%

The Trail Blazers could look towards forward Dillon Jones with the No. 34 overall pick or other forwards who can contribute to the roster. Portland might need more defenders and big-body players instead of a rather shorter point guard in Bronny.

San Antonio Spurs - No. 35 Overall Draft Pick: 41.5%

Holding the 35th pick, the Spurs boast a solid 41.5% chance of drafting Bronny James, perhaps finding a new cornerstone for their storied franchise. Wembanyama will be at the core of every decision the Spurs make, including if they take Bronny.

Indiana Pacers (via Toronto Raptors) - No. 36 Overall Draft Pick: 42.2%

Bronny could fit well in Indiana, and with the No. 36 overall pick, the Pacers could bring in the sharpshooter. Alex Karaban or Payton Sandfort could be a nice selection for them in case Bronny isn’t available to them.

Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis Grizzlies) - No. 37 Overall Draft Pick: 43.6%

The Timberwolves could use more shooting on the roster which is why they could feel comfortable with taking Bronny James No. 37 overall. Any draft choice outside of the top 20 is a gamble, which is why the probability is over 40%.

New York Knicks (via Utah Jazz) - No. 38 Overall Draft Pick: 48.7%

The Knicks love drama and could bring Bronny on board if he happens to be available inside the top 30. Otherwise, expect the franchise to look at players such as Ryan Dunn or Ajay Mitchell to shore up their bench.

Memphis Grizzlies (via Brooklyn Nets) - No. 39 Overall Draft Pick: 49.4%

At 39th, the Grizzlies possess a promising 49.4% chance of adding Bronny James to their roster, potentially bolstering their youthful core because what do they have to lose at this point?

Portland Trail Blazers (via Atlanta Hawks) - No. 40 Overall Draft Pick: 54.0%

With an over 50% chance to take Bronny, the Trail Blazers could take a swing in the dark because they are still trying to see which one of their players is untouchable.

Philadelphia 76ers (via Chicago Bulls) - No. 41 Overall Draft Pick: 58.8%

The 76ers could have close to a 60% chance that they bring Bronny on board because Embiid and Maxey need a shooter to make shots, and failing in free agency could see them make a panic selection to improve their offense.

Charlotte Hornets (via Houston Rockets) - No. 42 Overall Draft Pick: 65.5%

LaMelo Ball could see how he fits alongside Bronny because passing to a natural shooter is what point guards love to do. Outside the top 40, Bronny James becomes a far more desirable prospect.

Miami Heat - No. 43 Overall Draft Pick: 69.8%

Does Bronny James fit into Miami Heat culture? Only time will tell, but Erik Spoelstra could find a way to make the prospect a better player who plays hard and sacrifices his own game for the sake of winning.

Houston Rockets (via Golden State Warriors) - No. 44 Overall Draft Pick: 71.3%

The Houston Rockets might trade their No. 44 overall pick in an effort to add win-now players, but if they don’t, they could do much worse than bringing Bronny on the team. The Rockets do not mind media attention and Bronny could be a bigger star than we might think in Houston.

Sacramento Kings - No. 45 Overall Draft Pick: 75.0%

The Kings could take a stab in the dark with the No. 45 overall pick and take Bronny James to place him in the long-term plans. The Kings have a higher pick to focus on so taking Bronny won’t be much of a problem within the organization.

Los Angeles Clippers (via Indiana Pacers) - No. 46 Overall Draft Pick: 79.6%

The Clippers could take Bronny James to continue their rivalry with the Lakers if it even exists. Los Angeles could be losing Paul George in free agency and could look at Bronny as a long-term replacement since he can space the floor and can be developed into a hungry defender alongside Kawhi Leonard.

Orlando Magic - No. 47 Overall Draft Pick: 80.1%

The Magic have a young team led by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner but they could welcome a sharpshooter to diversify their offense. Bronny might not fit into Orlando’s top-five defensive schemes immediately, but he could develop into a solid two-way guard.

San Antonio Spurs (via Los Angeles Lakers) - No. 48 Overall Draft Pick: 87.0%

The Spurs could be clever and continue their media attention with Bronny James joining a roster with superstar prospect Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs could use Bronny’s shooting from deep to open up the floor for them and make the paint more open for Victor.

Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland Cavaliers) - No. 49 Overall Draft Pick: 90.4%

The Pacers have back-to-back first-round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft and taking Bronny could help their floor-spacing and growth for the future. Even if Bronny won’t play major minutes, he can at least be taken by a smaller market that could give him chances.

Indiana Pacers (via New Orleans Pelicans) - No. 50 Overall Draft Pick: 92.0%

The Pacers are slowly developing in the Eastern Conference and could do much worse than bringing some attention to their franchise with the No. 50 overall pick. Indiana has two All-Stars Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, so Bronny could advance his growth on the team.

Washington Wizards (via Phoenix Suns) - No. 51 Overall Draft Pick: 93.9%

The Wizards have nothing to lose which is why Bronny will be taken by them if he is still available with over 90% certainty. Jordan Poole is likely out the door soon, so perhaps Bronny could find some minutes next season if it happens.

Golden State Warriors (via Milwaukee Bucks) - No. 52 Overall Draft Pick: 95.0%

The Warriors love shooters and Bronny seems to be a natural shooter. If there is one backcourt that Bronny could mimic, it is from the Splash Brothers led by Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. James might not play next season but can develop alongside the stars.

Detroit Pistons (via New York Knicks) - No. 53 Overall Draft Pick: 96.3%

The Detroit Pistons could not have had a worse season, so they have nothing to lose by taking Bronny James No. 53 overall. The hope of LeBron following is slim to none but there is still a near-certain probability that the Pistons take him No. 53 overall.

Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks) - No. 54 Overall Draft Pick: 99.9%

The Celtics could troll the Lakers by taking their prospect and adding a sharpshooter to their roster. It is unlikely Bronny will find any minutes on the court with a team as stacked as the Celtics, but there is still a high chance he goes No. 54 overall.

Los Angeles Lakers (via Los Angeles Clippers) - No. 55 Overall Draft Pick: 100.0%

If the Lakers do not take Bronny early in the draft and he is still available, there is a perfect 100.0% chance they will take him at No. 55 overall. Los Angeles is the most likely destination for Bronny which is why he will end up in Purple and Gold if possible.

Denver Nuggets (via Minnesota Timberwolves) - No. 56 Overall Draft Pick: 100.0%

The reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets could win their second-straight championship and might want a little drama by bringing Bronny on board. Denver could always use some shooters around Nikola Jokic which is why they will draft the youngster.

Memphis Grizzlies (via Oklahoma City Thunder) - No. 57 Overall Draft Pick: 100.0%

The Grizzlies could always use a youngster who can shoot the ball and run the floor, so perhaps taking a stab with Bronny makes sense which is why they will almost certainly bring him on board to join Ja Morant’s budding roster.

Dallas Mavericks (via Boston Celtics) - No. 58 Overall Draft Pick: 100.0%

The Dallas Mavericks have the last pick in the draft and could use it to acquire Bronny James with the hopes of LeBron James somehow joining Luka Doncic and former teammate Kyrie Irving on the court by accepting a veteran’s minimum deal which is nothing but a dream.

Where Does Bronny James Likely Land In The Draft?

Based on the draft predictions, Bronny James will almost certainly not finish within the top 20 of the draft although the Lakers could take him No. 17 overall if LeBron James puts pressure on them. However, the likely selection is the Lakers with the No. 55 overall pick. Los Angeles might not want to waste their top 20 pick on Bronny just yet since the prospect might fall into the second round in all likelihood.

However, it is also entirely possible the San Antonio Spurs take Bronny with the No. 35 or No. 48 overall pick which means he is taken before the Lakers grab him. The Spurs need shooters and guards since their perimeter play was below average around Victor Wembanyama. 

Another team to look out for is the Dallas Mavericks, who could use Bronny as bait to lure LeBron James. The Mavericks have the No. 58 pick so with the last pick in the draft, there is almost no risk about taking Bronny and seeing what LeBron decides to do with his future. 

There is a near-100% chance he is taken within the last 10 draft selections and a 0% chance he is taken in the top 15, so the Bronny “sweepstakes” will be a very interesting one to follow.